DAILY OUTLOOK
Reading market data and its publication dates.
National direction is shared across grades. Each station can react at a different time.
The next-day change at an individual station has not been validated.
Regular gasoline · dollars per gallon
Weekly EIA readings. The shaded forecast interval describes a national average, not a station price.
Crude, wholesale gasoline, recent retail movement, and seasonality inform the outlook. Local supply and station pricing can change when that pressure reaches your pump.
Facts, reported assessments, and predictions are labeled separately. News is context in this version; it does not receive an invented cents-per-gallon adjustment.
Collected from EIA. These items have not received an independent fact check by SIFT.
An observation date is different from the time SIFT retrieved it. Failed refreshes keep the previous values and their original dates.
| Source | Observation | Last check | Status |
|---|
The benchmark is simple: assume next week’s national average stays the same. SIFT needs to improve on that to be useful.
| Forecast made | Expected change | Actual change | Error |
|---|
The first forecast for each weekly target is saved unchanged. It is scored after the corresponding EIA reading arrives.
One national regular-gasoline outlook supplies the market recommendation across selected fuel grades. It uses weekly retail change, wholesale changes, the retail/wholesale gap, WTI and Brent changes, and annual seasonality.
It estimates the next Monday national reading. An early-week model uses the previous wholesale release; the midweek model uses the newer Wednesday release. It does not predict that every station will move tomorrow. A change since Monday may already be partly reflected in today’s pump price.
Historical tests use EIA’s currently published, revised data and assumed release timing. This is a retrospective check, not a test using archived real-time data. The uncertainty range is based on past prediction errors and can fail during a new kind of disruption.
War, refinery outages, hurricanes, and policy changes can introduce new information faster than these free series update. Reviewed evidence stays dated; new feed items are not automatically promoted to verified facts. SIFT cannot continuously and independently verify breaking news without an additional review process.
Changing a station or fuel grade does not change the national signal. A national outcome does not validate savings or prediction accuracy at your station.